Is the SPY Nightmare Over? Watching the 200-Day Battle

Is the SPY Nightmare Over? Watching the 200-Day Battle

Apr 1, 2026

Alright traders, Barrie Einarson here with today’s edition of What Makes This Trade Great—and today, it’s not about a single stock. It’s about the SPY. To Subscribe: https://go.trade-ideas.com/SHQ
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Take a look at that 200-day moving average. That green line? That’s been a line in the sand for a long time. For what felt like years, we were comfortably above it—no real pressure. But with everything going on globally, especially tensions out of Iran, we finally cracked below it.

And when we broke… we broke hard.

Now here’s the interesting part. Just two days ago, we were way down. Sentiment wasn’t great. But look at the rally we’ve had since—strong, fast, and aggressive.

So the question is: is the nightmare over?

Maybe.

What I’m really watching is whether we can reclaim that 200-day moving average. Not just tag it—but actually get above it and hold. That’s what a lot of traders and institutions are watching. It’s one of the most important technical levels out there, especially on something like the SPY.

Do we do it today? Probably not.

But tomorrow? That’s definitely in play.

And how we react at that level—that’s going to tell us everything. Do we reject and roll back over? Or do we break through and start building above it?

That’s the tell.

So keep this on your radar. The SPY and that 200-day—it’s the battleground right now.

Let’s see how it plays out.