An evaluator’s skepticism about the time frame used by The Odds Maker prompts us to set things straight and show actual trade by trade results from yesterday’s session, September 12, 2006. The Odds Maker uses approximately 3 weeks worth of trading data to evaluate the effectiveness of any strategy. Yesterday on September the 12, 2006 the markets rallied pretty hard. As I wrote the first draft of this blog entry the Dow was at 11477.28 +80.12 for the day, the Nasdaq was at 2200.02 +26.73. The concern of this evaluator is that The Odds Maker can leave a trader unprepared when the market makes a sudden abrupt correction.

Here is our short answer.

There is another related question to answer:

“How does a day like September 12th affect a high odds short strategy working well for the last 3 weeks?”

We are going to answer that question by running a test and looking under the hood of The Odds Maker.

Compare a short strategy and a mirror image as a long strategy in Trade-Ideas, run The Odds Maker on each strategy and examine the results. As of yesterday a strategy that I created called, “Short the Up Move” produced nice results for the last 3 weeks. Note: the alert trigger is a signal to fade off of a small move upward.

Note: ALL TIMES ARE PST (Add 3 hours for EST)

Figure 1.0 Short the Up Move

Here is The Odds Maker configuration for this strategy.

Figure 1.1 The Odds Maker Configuration for Short the Up Move

The same can be asked of a Long strategy. Here is a decent long strategy called, “Buy the Down Move” that is basically the mirror image of the short strategy. It also produced good results. Remember its more than just the win % rate – take a look at how the average winning trade compares to average losing trade. More on this appears in a previous post.

Figure 2.0 Buy the Down Move

Here is The Odds Maker configuration for this strategy.

Figure 2.1 The Odds Maker Configuration for Buy the Down Move

The table is set – Let’s compare what happened with each strategy. Those who want the details can start looking at the data set below. Here is the skinny for everyone else:

This shorting strategy did well today inspite of the rally, suggesting to us that we keep our emotions out of the market and simply listen to the numbers. It helps to illustrate that one day does not define a trend and although there was money to be made buying today, the strategies that worked well according to The Odds Maker for the last 3 weeks continued to work well today.

Here are the exact details of all the trades (PST) that were only made yesterday for, “Short the Up Move”.

#1 WCC, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:43:19, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 8:15:00, Entry price=56.71, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=57.05, Loser, Moved $-0.34
#2 FLR, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:01:27, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:30:00, Entry price=81.05, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:30:00, Exit price=80.95, Winner, Moved $0.10
#3 ICE, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:03:20, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:35:00, Entry price=63.24, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:35:00, Exit price=62.75, Winner, Moved $0.49
#4 VOL, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:35:13, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:05:00, Entry price=34.64, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:05:00, Exit price=34.67, Loser, Moved $-0.03
#5 OIH, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:54:38, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Entry price=127.02, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Exit price=125.37, Winner, Moved $1.65
#6 BHI, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:10:37, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Entry price=64.02, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Exit price=62.8, Winner, Moved $1.22
#7 QID, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:11:05, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Entry price=66, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Exit price=65.44, Winner, Moved $0.56
#8 NOC, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:52:45, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12
10:25:00, Entry price=68.74, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:25:00, Exit price=67.57, Winner, Moved $1.17
#9 CX, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:03:34, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:35:00, Entry price=28.46, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:35:00, Exit price=28.43, Winner, Moved $0.03
#10 CHS, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:19:00, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:50:00, Entry price=19.67, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:50:00, Exit price=19.82, Loser, Moved $-0.15
#11 IPS, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:31:16, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:00:00, Entry price=88.42, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:00:00, Exit price=88.3, Winner, Moved $0.12
#12 MA, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:42:41, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:15:00, Entry price=61.53, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:15:00, Exit price=61.58, Loser, Moved $-0.05
#13 CRS, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:47:48, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:20:00, Entry price=95.33, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:20:00, Exit price=94.78, Winner, Moved $0.55
#14 NE, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:39:14, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:10:00, Entry price=63.34, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:10:00, Exit price=63.58, Loser, Moved $-0.24
#15 ESV, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:49:36, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:20:00, Entry price=42.83, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:20:00, Exit price=42.85, Loser, Moved $-0.02
#16 RIG, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:51:41, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:20:00, Entry price=68.84, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:20:00, Exit price=68.22, Winner, Moved $0.62
#17 PD, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:54:48, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:25:00, Entry price=84.48, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:25:00, Exit price=84, Winner, Moved $0.48
#18 SLB, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:58:13, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Entry price=55.09, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Exit price=54.64, Winner, Moved $0.45
#19 GRP, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:58:42, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Entry price=38.37, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Exit price=37.86, Winner, Moved $0.51
#20 DVN, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:58:48, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Entry price=65.36, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Exit price=65.03, Winner, Moved $0.33
#21 MRO, Entry time=2006-09-12 12:00:06, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Entry price=74.52, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 12:30:00, Exit price=74.32, Winner, Moved $0.20
#22 XOM, Entry time=2006-09-12 12:48:45, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 13:00:00, Entry price=64.97, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 13:00:00, Exit price=64.69, Winner, Moved $0.28

Here are the exact details of all the trades that were only made yesterday for, “Buy the Down Move”.

#1 PBR, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:11:18, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 07:40:00, Entry price=80.11, Exit type=close, Exit
time=2006-09-12 07:40:00, Exit price=80.7, Winner, Moved $0.59
#2 DE, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:43:23, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=79.65, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=81.17, Winner, Moved $1.52
#3 GM, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:47:21, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=31.84, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=32.87, Winner, Moved $1.03
#4 WHR, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:47:26, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=84.85, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=87.04, Winner, Moved $2.19
#5 UNP, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:47:26, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=79.9, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=81.29, Winner, Moved $1.39
#6 JCI, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:47:27, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=68.85, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=70.81, Winner, Moved $1.96
#7 FTI, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:47:28, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Entry price=56.11, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:15:00, Exit price=56.99, Winner, Moved $0.88
#8 WCG, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:48:25, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:20:00, Entry price=56.84, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:20:00, Exit price=56.9, Winner, Moved $0.06
#9 ET, Entry time=2006-09-12 07:58:29, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:30:00, Entry price=22.75, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:30:00, Exit price=22.79, Winner, Moved $0.04
#10 ANF, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:05:18, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 08:35:00, Entry price=65.3, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 08:35:00, Exit price=66.58, Winner, Moved $1.28
#11 NFX, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:28:01, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Entry price=38.96, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Exit price=38.96, Loser, Moved $0.00
#12 UNT, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:29:42, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Entry price=48.43, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Exit price=48.42, Loser, Moved $-0.01

#13 SU, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:30:07, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Entry price=68.06, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:00:00, Exit price=68.08, Winner, Moved $0.02
#14 TSO, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:54:17, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Entry price=58.45, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Exit price=58.13, Loser, Moved $-0.32
#15 VLO, Entry time=2006-09-12 08:55:49, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Entry price=50.97, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:25:00, Exit price=50.99, Winner, Moved $0.02
#16 NXY, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:03:51, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:35:00, Entry price=52.1, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:35:00, Exit price=51.74, Loser, Moved $-0.36
#17 FTO, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:08:08, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Entry price=26.77, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 09:40:00, Exit price=26.63, Loser, Moved $-0.14
#18 RIG, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:31:28, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Entry price=68.75, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Exit price=68.41, Loser, Moved $-0.34
#19 GSF, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:32:04, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Entry price=46.33, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Exit price=46.35, Winner, Moved $0.02
#20 GLW, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:32:04, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Entry price=21.88, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:00:00, Exit price=22.59, Winner, Moved $0.71
#21 PTR, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:34:51, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Entry price=105, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Exit price=105.08, Winner, Moved $0.08
#22 PD, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:36:53, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Entry price=84.52, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Exit price=84.2, Loser, Moved $-0.32
#23 TIE, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:36:55, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Entry price=24.75, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:05:00, Exit price=24.79, Winner, Moved $0.04
#24 RTI, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:37:41, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Entry price=40.57, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Exit price=40.54, Loser, Moved $-0.03
#25 MA, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:37:50, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Entry price=61.26, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Exit price=61.41, Winner, Moved $0.15
#26 UBB, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:39:17, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Entry price=71.57, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Exit price=71.59, Winner, Moved $0.02
#27 CCJ, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:39:59, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Entry price=38.37, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Exit price=38.17, Loser, Moved $-0.20
#28 XTO, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:40:10, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Entry price=41.11, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:10:00, Exit price=41.13, Winner, Moved $0.02
#29 CRS, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:44:04, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:15:00, Entry price=94.86, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:15:00, Exit price=94.75, Loser, Moved $-0.11
#30 RRC, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:44:46, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:15:00, Entry price=25.1, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:15:00, Exit price=24.99, Loser, Moved $-0.11
#31 THE, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:48:56, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:20:00, Entry price=36.43, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:20:00, Exit price=36.03, Loser, Moved $-0.40
#32 NOV, Entry time=2006-09-12 09:54:16, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:25:00, Entry price=58.16, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:25:00, Exit price=57.9, Loser, Moved $-0.26

#33 PCU, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:06:59, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:35:00, Entry price=88.31, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:35:00, Exit price=87.92, Loser, Moved $-0.39
#34 IPS, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:10:48, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:40:00, Entry price=88.22, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:40:00, Exit price=88.45, Winner, Moved $0.23
#35 X, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:20:39, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 10:50:00, Entry price=57.4, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 10:50:00, Exit price=58.19, Winner, Moved $0.79
#36 TEX, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:56:01, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:25:00, Entry price=40.98, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:25:00, Exit price=40.66, Loser, Moved $-0.32
#37 AL, Entry time=2006-09-12 10:57:25, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:25:00, Entry price=41.81, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:25:00, Exit price=41.52, Loser, Moved $-0.29
#38 OS, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:08:47, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:40:00, Entry price=47.63, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:40:00, Exit price=48.02, Winner, Moved $0.39
#39 ERF, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:14:27, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:45:00, Entry price=50.33, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:45:00, Exit price=50.08, Loser, Moved $-0.25
#40 BRL, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:22:17, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:50:00, Entry price=54.16, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:50:00, Exit price=54.3, Winner, Moved $0.14

#41 SWN, Entry time=2006-09-12 11:23:59, Latest Exit Time=2006-09-12 11:55:00, Entry price=32.44, Exit type=close, Exit time=2006-09-12 11:55:00, Exit price=32.91, Winner, Moved $0.47