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Wednesday, June 18th, 2008

Creating and backtesting a daytrading system with filters

The reason this is important is because Filters are the most powerful features in Trade-ideas pro, while Alerts are the things that you see and are visible. Filters is the way you really paint the picture of what you want the chart to look like. Let us take a look at what we did today. In today’s lesson we are going to show you how to design a system which shows you stocks that are consolidating in a very tight range, after they made a move to either the upside or the downside. Let us take a look and see how we set this up side using only Filters. I am going to right click and select Configure and here you can see all of the elements that are selected in this window. All of them are primarily this color, which means that they are Windows Specific Filters and I am going to talk about this one last. So let us click on this tab, here are my Windows Specific Filters, I have no Minimum Price, but I have a Maximum Price of 100 dollars. I have a Maximum Spread of 10 cents just to make sure that I do not see stocks that are really trading wide like a dollar or a dollar fifty or I could get hurt if I was going to try to get in. The next Filter is the Filter that we always use when creating systems to either automate or even to trade by hand, because this filter the Max Distance from Inside Market is the filter that helps you to get rid of bad prints, What this means is that at the time of this stock met all the criteria, the stock was not printing outside of the best offer, the best bid. Let us continue down. We have a Minimum Daily Volume for all stocks that are going to be in the system of half a million shares, again what that means is that over the last month on an average the stock trades at least half a million shares. Primarily this is done so that we know we can get in and out of all stock fairly quickly. This system that we are making is designed to trade anywhere from a 100 to 500 shares, So again this ensures that if we are getting out we are getting out quickly without too many problems. Let us continue. We have a Max Volume Today of 75%, this means that at the time that this is all Filters are being met, the stock is only trading 75% of its average volume for the day. That means that at the most, all this means that there is not particularly large volume spikes at this time, and that means that the volatility is slowing down again this is the Max Volume Today Filter set at 75%, so at most 75% of the average volume. Let us continue down. Here is how we define that the stock has made at least somewhat of a move either to the up or to the down side. We have a Minimum Range Today of 1.85 points and what this means is that the stock has had to move from the high to the low at least $1.85, it could have moved up or it could have moved down but at least there was this much movement and that is the minimum. So most likely everything is going to be at least this much or more. Now, let us figure out the last and most important case which is how do we get this tight range and here is how we did it. We have a Filter called "Minimum and Maximum Range in the last 30 minutes" and what I selected was 0.25 cents, so that means while it had made a move of at least a $1.85 at some point today between the high and the low, in the last 30 minutes it had only been in the 25 cents range, and this is how you design this particular filter. There are no other filters set up, so when I go to my Strategies tab you see that there is a Heartbeat Alert, what happens is this: if I do not select any other alerts, the Heartbeat will automatically default to let me know that these are the stocks that meet my criteria. Again, the Heartbeat is an automatic default to let me know that these stocks meet my criteria. So let us take a look at what this works like, here we go, right now IPHS has come across and again today is June 18 and you can take a look at any chart and confirm it for yourself, we are doing this lesson in the West Coast time. Here is the tight range over the last half hour. Okay, we are talking about a .25 cent range in the last half hour, this is a 5 minute chart. Okay, we can take a look at the following CPRT, again same, in a very tight range, also PENN, same thing, very tight range over the last half hour. Okay, so then the question is what do we do with this information, how do we make it into a trading system? This is where that the OddsMaker takeover, how to we design this system, lets figure out what to do with it. I am going to press the Backtest button, and I am going to bring the Configure OddsMaker window into view. In this particular case what we are going to do is, we are going to try to short this move because we know that the market has been fairly weak lately, so we are going to attempt to short it. We are going to start this strategy 30 minutes after they opened because again we want to have it make that move in the beginning and then let it potentially consolidate. So we are going to start this strategy 30 minutes after they opened and this is the strategy where we are going buy a 0.50 cent stock and we are going to hold the stock for 30 minutes before it close. Now let us run the system. The OddsMaker is calculating through all the different trades that have come across over the last 15 trading days. It is 99% complete. So, let us take a look. Out of the 242 possible trades that have made this criteria, 140 won at least a penny in the 30 minute before the close, that is a 57% win rate, that is pretty good and notice that our average winner is 52 cents, our average loser is 33 cents. It is not quite 2X, but because we have a higher win rate at 57% this is what gives us the Net winnings 40 points. This is a pretty good system and you can see by the printout, there is a decent amount of manageable trades and a good Net Winnings number out of a 242 possible trades. This is a system that was designed to trade anywhere from 100 to 500 shares. This concludes the lesson on how to build a system using just Filters in Trade-Ideas pro.


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